森林作为地球生态系统的核心组成部分，其价值远超传统认知中的木材产出。随着生态经济学的发展，森林生态价值的量化逐渐从单一经济评估转向多维生态服务核算。当前主流方法可归纳为三大类：直接市场价值法、替代市场价值法及模拟市场价值法，各类方法在适用场景与精度上形成互补。

　　Forests, as a core component of the Earth's ecosystem, have a value far beyond traditional perception of timber production. With the development of ecological economics, the quantification of forest ecological value has gradually shifted from single economic evaluation to multidimensional ecological service accounting. The current mainstream methods can be classified into three categories: direct market value method, alternative market value method, and simulated market value method, which complement each other in terms of applicable scenarios and accuracy.

　　直接市场价值法：基于实物产出的经济核算

　　Direct Market Value Method: Economic Accounting Based on Physical Output

　　该方法通过测算森林直接产生的有形产品价值，构建量化基础。木材采伐、林下经济作物、药用植物开发等均属此类。以木材为例，需综合考量树种、胸径、蓄积量等参数，结合市场价格波动曲线，计算可持续采伐的经济收益。某研究团队在东北林区实践中发现，采用动态价格模型替代固定单价，可使评估误差降低18%。此外，林下经济作物如松茸、人参的产值，需纳入生长周期、采摘成本及品质分级等因素，避免简单以产量乘以单价的粗放计算。

　　This method constructs a quantitative basis by measuring the tangible product value directly generated by forests. Wood harvesting, agroforestry, and medicinal plant development all fall under this category. Taking wood as an example, it is necessary to comprehensively consider parameters such as tree species, breast height diameter, and storage volume, combined with the market price fluctuation curve, to calculate the economic benefits of sustainable logging. A research team found in practice in the Northeast forest area that using a dynamic price model instead of a fixed unit price can reduce evaluation errors by 18%. In addition, the output value of agroforestry crops such as matsutake and ginseng should be taken into account factors such as growth cycle, harvesting cost, and quality grading, to avoid rough calculations based solely on yield multiplied by unit price.

　　替代市场价值法：生态功能的货币化转换

　　Alternative Market Value Approach: Monetization of Ecological Functions

　　针对森林的调蓄水源、固碳释氧、保持水土等无形服务，替代市场法通过寻找等价替代品或工程方案进行估值。例如，森林涵养水源的价值可参照水库建设成本，按每立方米蓄水量的工程投资折算。某流域治理项目显示，通过对比同等蓄水量的混凝土水库造价，测算出森林年生态服务价值达数亿元。在固碳领域，国际通行的碳汇交易价格体系为量化提供基准，但需结合森林类型、树龄结构修正碳汇能力参数。某亚热带林区案例表明，混交林的单位面积固碳量较纯林高23%，凸显树种配置对估值的影响。

　　For intangible services such as regulating water sources, carbon sequestration and oxygen release, and soil and water conservation in forests, the alternative market method is used to value them by seeking equivalent alternatives or engineering solutions. For example, the value of forest water conservation can be calculated based on the cost of reservoir construction, calculated as the engineering investment per cubic meter of water storage capacity. A watershed management project shows that by comparing the cost of concrete reservoirs with the same storage capacity, the annual ecological service value of forests is estimated to be several hundred million yuan. In the field of carbon sequestration, the internationally recognized carbon trading price system provides a benchmark for quantification, but the carbon sequestration capacity parameters need to be adjusted based on forest type and tree age structure. A case study in a subtropical forest area shows that the carbon sequestration per unit area of mixed forests is 23% higher than that of pure forests, highlighting the impact of tree species configuration on valuation.

　　模拟市场价值法：公众偏好的经济表达

　　Simulated Market Value Method: Economic Expression of Public Preference

　　当生态服务缺乏实际市场时，模拟市场法通过构建假设场景，捕捉公众支付意愿。条件价值评估（CVM）是典型手段，其核心在于设计科学的调查问卷，避免引导性偏差。某研究机构在长江流域采用双边界二分式CVM，发现居民对水质改善的年支付意愿与收入水平呈0.67的弹性系数。选择实验法（CE）则通过多属性权衡，量化生态服务组合价值。某保护区应用CE模型后，揭示游客对生物多样性保护的支付意愿较单纯景观价值高出40%，为保护区管理提供新视角。

　　When there is a lack of actual market for ecological services, the simulated market method captures public willingness to pay by constructing hypothetical scenarios. Conditional Value Assessment (CVM) is a typical approach, whose core lies in designing scientific survey questionnaires to avoid guiding biases. A research institution used a double boundary binary CVM in the Yangtze River Basin and found that residents' annual willingness to pay for water quality improvement showed an elasticity coefficient of 0.67 with their income level. The choice of experimental method (CE) quantifies the combined value of ecological services through multi-attribute trade-offs. After applying the CE model in a certain protected area, it was revealed that tourists' willingness to pay for biodiversity conservation is 40% higher than that of simple landscape value, providing a new perspective for protected area management.

　　量化挑战与前沿方向

　　Quantitative challenges and cutting-edge directions

　　现有方法仍面临时空异质性、阈值效应及文化价值捕获等难题。同一森林在不同气候条件下的服务功能差异可达3倍以上，要求建立动态监测与情景模拟平台。此外，森林对物种多样性维持、气候调节等阈值效应，需通过生态系统模型与大数据技术深化认知。在文化价值领域，民族生态学方法正被引入，通过参与式制图量化传统知识价值。未来，区块链技术有望实现生态价值流转的可信追溯，而人工智能将提升多源数据融合效率，推动森林生态价值量化向精准化、实时化演进。

　　The existing methods still face challenges such as spatiotemporal heterogeneity, threshold effects, and cultural value capture. The service functions of the same forest can vary by more than three times under different climatic conditions, requiring the establishment of a dynamic monitoring and scenario simulation platform. In addition, the threshold effects of forests on species diversity maintenance and climate regulation need to be further understood through ecosystem models and big data technologies. In the field of cultural values, ethnic ecological methods are being introduced to quantify the value of traditional knowledge through participatory mapping. In the future, blockchain technology is expected to achieve trustworthy traceability of ecological value circulation, while artificial intelligence will improve the efficiency of multi-source data fusion and promote the evolution of forest ecological value quantification towards precision and real-time.

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